In severe political crises, such as the one we see in Zimbabwe today,
forced migrants often become enmeshed in complex political games, sometimes in unexpected ways. South Africa's Thabo Mbeki has been roundly
criticized for his failure to impose sanctions against or even publicly condemn Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe despite leadership so astronomically poor that last month
saw inflation over 4500% and
unemployment exceeding 80%. Earlier this year, the Southern African Development Community
selected Mbeki to mediate between Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change party. While Mbeki has kept details of the negotiation out of the media,
rumors abound that he intends to set up a transitional government between Mugabe and the opposition. Critics are skeptical of the plan, which in any case comes too late for the estimated
3.4 million Zimbabweans, one quarter of the population, who have already fled the country. Despite
severe obstacles including crocodiles and lions,
thousands of Zimbabweans pour across the border into South Africa each week.
But because Mbeki's government will not recognize the human rights abuses of Mugabe's regime, it refuses to protect these forced migrants,
deporting almost 16,000 Zimbabweans each month. (Almost half of these deportees immediately turn around and
try to re-enter South Africa, in some cases
jumping off moving trains to avoid being returned to Zimbabwe.) And these numbers don't include the
uncounted masses of Zimbabweans who remain in South Africa. Hard as it is to imagine, Zimbabwe's economy would be in even worse condition without the
remittances sent by these forced migrants, who may be inadvertently propping up the Mugabe regime. In turn, this means that Mbeki's deportation policy, grounded in his
refusal to recognize the human rights abuses perpetrated by Mugabe, likely has a negative impact on Zimbabwe's economy, similar to the sanctions that he refuses to impose. A newspaper run by Zimbabwean exiles goes so far as to
speculate that if Mugabe fails to agree to Mbeki's transitional government proposal, South Africa will speed up mass deportations of Zimbabweans just before the 2008 elections in Zimbabwe in order to vote Mugabe out of office. Whether or not this particular tidbit is true, it is high time for Mbeki to
stop playing political games and protect these forced migrants as South Africa's obligations under the
UN and
OAU refugee conventions require.
In severe political crises, such as the one we see in Zimbabwe today, forced migrants often become enmeshed in complex political games, sometimes in unexpected ways. South Africa's Thabo Mbeki has been roundly criticized for his failure to impose sanctions against or even publicly condemn Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe despite leadership so astronomically poor that last month saw inflation over 4500% and unemployment exceeding 80%. Earlier this year, the Southern African Development Community selected Mbeki to mediate between Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change party. While Mbeki has kept details of the negotiation out of the media, rumors abound that he intends to set up a transitional government between Mugabe and the opposition. Critics are skeptical of the plan, which in any case comes too late for the estimated 3.4 million Zimbabweans, one quarter of the population, who have already fled the country. Despite severe obstacles including crocodiles and lions, thousands of Zimbabweans pour across the border into South Africa each week. 
But because Mbeki's government will not recognize the human rights abuses of Mugabe's regime, it refuses to protect these forced migrants, deporting almost 16,000 Zimbabweans each month. (Almost half of these deportees immediately turn around and try to re-enter South Africa, in some cases jumping off moving trains to avoid being returned to Zimbabwe.) And these numbers don't include the uncounted masses of Zimbabweans who remain in South Africa. Hard as it is to imagine, Zimbabwe's economy would be in even worse condition without the remittances sent by these forced migrants, who may be inadvertently propping up the Mugabe regime. In turn, this means that Mbeki's deportation policy, grounded in his refusal to recognize the human rights abuses perpetrated by Mugabe, likely has a negative impact on Zimbabwe's economy, similar to the sanctions that he refuses to impose. A newspaper run by Zimbabwean exiles goes so far as to speculate that if Mugabe fails to agree to Mbeki's transitional government proposal, South Africa will speed up mass deportations of Zimbabweans just before the 2008 elections in Zimbabwe in order to vote Mugabe out of office. Whether or not this particular tidbit is true, it is high time for Mbeki to stop playing political games and protect these forced migrants as South Africa's obligations under the UN and OAU refugee conventions require.
